Petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas
emissions continue to increase in the US and worldwide, and the transportation
sector remains almost totally dependent on petroleum. Almost all alternative
fuel fuels have failed. What will the future bring? How might (or might not)
the hydrogen economy emerge? Is there a role for both mobile and stationary
hydrogen? Distributed generation? Fossil fuels? How
might markets and policy evolve to support a transition to a hydrogen economy?
I will review lessons learned from recent experiences with battery electric
vehicles, alcohol fuels, and natural gas, and map them on a future of
increasing oil use and greenhouse gases. I will review recent studies such as
the National Academies report on hydrogen (February 2004), and examine the role
of policy and industry, especially with respect to